Bulgaria - Last Minute or First Minute holidays? When is the cheapest to book? Analysis of holiday price changes in Bulgaria.

We save PLN 1000 on holiday bookings in Bulgaria

Yes! First a bomb!
Analysis of 10 months of real sales prices for holidays in Bulgaria leads to a simple conclusion: you can save on a two-person trip over PLN 1000 and without a great deal of trouble. That's approximately 1 / 3 prices for the whole trip !!!
The material from which this application flows is very interesting and it is worth reading it. They won't tell you at a travel agency!
Instead, I will try to present the topic below clearly. This knowledge will arm you with a very strong weapon in the fight for the best price for your vacation.
You will squeeze the best price and with satisfaction lying under the palm trees you will be able to enjoy the charms of a favorable vacation.

Important ATTENTION !!!
This text applies to only trips to Bulgaria. It should not be translated to other destinations. Although there may be similarity, usually prices of trips in other directions behave differently and will be the subject of separate articles.

What will we analyze?

At the beginning we have to assume what trip option we will analyze.
The most versatile and currently popular option seems to be the trip option:
- 2 adults
- for 1 week
- plane flight
- food: All Inclusive
We will also assume that we will be analyzing the same time of stay and it will be the date of going on vacation in the first week of August.
Therefore, we are interested in the price of the trip according to the parameters adopted above.
However, this does not change the fact that prices in all variants will be similar.

How will we analyze?

The analysis starts in the month of November (then there are already First Minute offers) and ends in August (to take into account Last Minute offers).
Each subsequent month between November and August, in similar periods of time, the offers of travel agencies are reviewed and the prices at which you can buy a stay in Bulgaria are checked according to our criteria.
For each month, calculates the average trip price and counts how much the price has changed (up or down) compared to the First Minute price obtained at the first reading in November. This way you know the amounts can save or have to be added by booking your stay at different times.
Such analysis should be carried out separately for 3, 4 and 5 star hotel offers.
The method is easy to see, but it requires a lot of time. The collection of data must last 10 months and it cannot be overcome.
Fortunately, you can find a lot of historical data on the internet and in this case we will use such data. For analysis I will use some of the data published by TravelDATA Tourism Market Research Institute.
For Bulgaria, they are available on the site Institute data from the year 2017.
In subsequent years, prices behaved similarly, due to the continued high popularity of this direction. For now, nothing indicates that something was about to change, so you should expect similar price behavior in the following years.

How do holiday prices change in Bulgaria during the year?

The average increase in the price of holidays in Bulgaria, depending on the moment when we decide to buy them, is presented in the table below. Below the table there is a graph illustrating the change in prices graphically, slightly easier to analyze.

I remind you that these are price changes holidays, depending on the time of purchase, for 7 days of stay, for 1 persons in a double room, All Inclusive, flight, on the date: the beginning of stay in the first week of August.

Price change for a 1 stay of a person
moment of purchase3 hotels *4 hotels *5 hotels *
November0 zł0 zł0 zł
December+ PLN 35+ PLN 78+ PLN 91
January+ PLN 102+ PLN 145+ PLN 167
February+ PLN 145+ PLN 242+ PLN 276
March+ PLN 189+ PLN 354+ PLN 414
April+ PLN 205+ PLN 396+ PLN 462
May+ PLN 276+ PLN 478+ PLN 592
June+ PLN 290+ PLN 453+ PLN 570
July+ PLN 395+ PLN 594+ PLN 615
August+ PLN 452+ PLN 675+ PLN 751

source: TravelDATA Tourist Market Research Institute

Chart of holiday price changes in Bulgaria, based on data published by the TravelDATA Institute for Tourism Market.

It is clear that the price is basically constantly rising. The only exception was June when the prices of 4 * and 5 * hotels fell slightly. Most likely, in June promotions appeared in the most expensive hotels, which were to fill the occupancy of these hotels, hence the temporary slight decrease in price.

Wnioski

There is no doubt that First Minute comes out the cheapest. If you are determined to go on vacation and you can afford early booking, then there is no cheaper or better option. Early booking in addition to the lowest price gives in addition freedom of choice. You choose from the widest hotel database and you have basically everything you can.

Counting straight on when traveling for two, the savings on early booking compared to last minute purchases are:
- in a 3-star hotel: 904 zł
- in a 4-star hotel: 1 350 zł
- in a 5-star hotel: 1 502 zł

Buying a trip well in advance you can save about 30% of the trip value regardless of whether you choose the 3, 4 or 5 star hotel.

Each month delay in booking it's more or less 3% price increase departure.

It must be made clear that Last Minute to rather today marketing trick than the real possibility of buying a cheap and attractive holiday. If anything goes to the Last Minute offer (and most often it happens that nothing hits because everything is sold earlier), these are offers that for some reason no one wanted. Last Minute prices are usually slightly lower than the current prices of regular offers, but at the same time Last Minute is coming out definitely more than than advance purchase (First Minute).

It is worth remembering that events that happen around the world have a significant impact on the prices of tourist trips. For example, the wave of the revolution (the so-called Arab Spring) that swept through the countries of North Africa in the years 2010-2012. It caused the collapse of the tourist market in, among others Egypt, Tunisia or Morocco, and at the same time a radical rise in prices in safer directions, for which demand suddenly increased. No price analysis can predict this. Advance booking can save you from unforeseen price increases being the result of events over which we have no influence.

What will be the price of the holiday next year?

This, of course, I can't predict. However, we can have some fun using the above data.
As the starting value, we will take the price of the First Minute offer read at the time of writing, i.e. in October.
For example, the average trip price checked in October 2019 for the trip in the first week of August 2020 is:
- in the 3 star hotel: 1 896 PLN (per person), lowest price: 1 641 PLN - check currently the lowest price - [click]

- in the 4 star hotel: 1 984 PLN (per person), lowest price: 1 507 PLN - check currently the lowest price - [click]

- in the 5 star hotel: 2 337 PLN (per person), lowest price: 1 775 PLN - check currently the lowest price - [click]

Assuming an average of 3% growth for each month of delay in booking, then by booking with 5 a monthly delay, I should estimate the budget needed at 5 * 3% = 15% higher than the prices read in October, i.e.
- in a 3-star hotel: PLN 2 (per person),
- in a 4-star hotel: PLN 2 (per person)
- in a 5-star hotel: PLN 2 (per person)

How to look for the best prices?

Of course, it is impossible to separately analyze the offers of dozens of travel agencies on foot, although in principle the most effective way is precisely this. Fortunately, we have offer comparison websites that do the worst job for us and are able to compare the offers of several dozen travel agencies in the blink of an eye, and present the result in a clear and legible form. It remains only to set the search criteria accordingly.
Below I have prepared three links, thanks to which even the appropriate search engine settings will be set automatically. Just click on the appropriate one to get the search result arranged from the lowest to the highest prices.

Links search for the best travel offers dabout Bulgaria for 7 days, by plane, in standard All Inclusive:

- in hotel 3 *** - [click]
- in a 4 **** hotel - [click]
- in the hotel 5 ***** - [click]

If you want to modify the search result then you can do it on the page that appears after clicking on one of the links above in the panel available on the left.

The comparison tool includes the offers of offices:
Itaka, Rainbow, Best Reisen, BFC Travel, Coral Travel / Wezyr, Ecco Holiday, Ecco Travel, ETI, Euro Pol Tour, Europe Mountains, Exim Tours, Funclub, Grecos, Holiday Experts, Index, Karpatia, Kompas Poland, Consortium of Travel Agencies, Logos Tour , Marco, Matimpex Travel, Mouzenidis Travel, No limits by Itaka, Oasis Tours, Onholidays, Orex Travel, Orka Travel, Oskar, Otium, Premio Travel, Prestige Tours, Prima Holiday, Regent, Rego-Bis, SnowTrex, Sun Fun, Volare Travel


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